Savor These Numbers

The polling gospel of Newsweek:

· Clinton beats McCain 50-44

· Obama beats McCain 52-39

· Edwards beats McCain 52-42

· Clinton beats Giuliani 49-46

· Obama beats Giuliani 50-43

· Edwards beats Giuliani 50-44

· Clinton crushes Romney 57-35

· Obama crushes Romney 58-29

· Edwards crushes Romney 64-27

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PREDICTIONS: If any man have an ear, let him hear, for this is wisdom. Redux 2004 – Obama is the charismatic political reformer in the Howard Dean tradition, and will become entangled in a brutal Iowa fight with Clinton, the establishment candidate in the Dick Gephardt tradition. Edwards will become everyone’s second choice in the John Kerry tradition.

In the Iowa caucuses, a candidate has to achieve a 15 percent floor to win any delegates at all. When the Gephardt 2004 campaign realized it couldn’t muster those numbers in most of the counties, it instructed its delegates to throw their support behind Kerry, the big-name candidate who was more electable than Dean. We’ll see the same pattern this summer and fall – Obama will gain a major fundraising and polling edge through December, but a feud with Clinton will eventually take its toll. On caucus night, Clinton will tell her supporters to move to the tried-and-true Edwards camp, and the Iowa momentum will carry him to the nomination.

This time the right man will win the election. It’s a year-and-a-half out, sure, but every political bone in my body tells me the Republicans don’t stand a chance of regrouping before 2008.