Someone Who Agrees...

...that Edwards will win the Democratic nomination. Matthew Yglesias makes the point that no one seems to take seriously when I make it:

I'd like to go on record early as saying I think John Edwards is probably going to win the nomination. If I had a choice between leading in national polls (Clinton), leading in fundraising (Obama), or leading in Iowa (Edwards) I'd take leading in Iowa. Money has diminishing marginal returns and Edwards has "enough" fundraising to keep running a major campaign. National polls, meanwhile, can move a lot in response to what happens in Iowa, whereas Iowa doesn't move in response to what happens nationwide.

Last, the emerging Obama-Clinton dynamic is making it very likely that Edwards can keep plugging away for the next six months and become everyone's second choice.

Not to mention, of course, that Edwards is the candidate best able to face down the Republicans. The radical right is serious (insane, obsessed, and paranoid, but serious) when it says it will not under any circumstances permit Hillary Clinton to be president. Likewise, an Obama general election candidacy will lose every southern state – remember what happened to Harold Ford the last time around. John Edwards is my second choice among the Dems, but a white male who campaigns on peace, responsibility, and equality is preferable to the white male who campaigns on aggression and wild-eyed tax cuts.