Complicating the Taliban’s Spring Offensive?

The cable news chat shows are perpetually abuzz with warnings that a resurgent Taliban – supported by a combat elite of Al Qaeda operatives – will attempt a reconquista of large regions of Afghanistan very, very soon. The BBC reports that the Musharraf government has managed to turn the locals of South Waziristan against the bin Laden and Taliban proxies operating from the Pakistani frontier. But don’t go celebrating a revival of secular soft power just yet:

Our correspondent says the government is keen to show that the fighting indicates that a controversial peace deal to stop militants crossing the border into Afghanistan is working.

Under the deal the military reduced its presence on the condition that local tribesmen stopped militants from carrying out attacks across the [Afghan] border.

This “deal” carries big risks for everyone, doesn’t it? Bush once again outsources the war on terror to shady people no one much trusts. Musharraf cedes direct control over a region that he desperately needs direct control over. And suppose the tribal elders fail to completely expel the militants – when (inevitably) the Taliban campaign fails, they’re likely to face a fighting, scorched-earth retreat, aren’t they?